Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Sunday 12 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 20555 (+1860) 531257 (+29436) 29818 (+2579) 480884 (+24997)
United Kingdom 9875 (+917) 78991 (+5233) 344 (+0) 68772 (+4316)
France 13832 (+635) 129654 (+4785) 26391 (+1459) 89431 (+2691)
Italy 19468 (+619) 152271 (+4694) 32534 (+2079) 100269 (+1996)
Spain 16606 (+525) 163027 (+4754) 59109 (+3441) 87312 (+788)
Belgium 3346 (+327) 28018 (+1351) 5986 (+418) 18686 (+606)
Netherlands 2643 (+132) 24413 (+1316) 250 (+0) 21520 (+1184)
Iran 4357 (+125) 70029 (+1837) 41947 (+6482) 23725 (-4770)
Germany 2871 (+104) 125452 (+3281) 57400 (+3487) 65181 (-310)
Turkey 1101 (+95) 52167 (+5138) 2965 (+542) 48101 (+4501)
Canada 653 (+84) 23318 (+1170) 6428 (+415) 16237 (+671)
Brazil 1140 (+72) 20962 (+1173) 173 (+0) 19649 (+1101)
India 288 (+42) 8446 (+848) 969 (+195) 7189 (+611)
Mexico 233 (+39) 3844 (+403) 633 (+0) 2978 (+364)
Portugal 470 (+35) 15987 (+515) 266 (+33) 15251 (+447)
Switzerland 1036 (+34) 25107 (+556) 12100 (+1000) 11971 (-478)
Ireland 320 (+33) 8928 (+839) 25 (+0) 8583 (+806)
Poland 208 (+27) 6356 (+401) 375 (+57) 5773 (+317)
Philippines 247 (+26) 4428 (+233) 157 (+17) 4024 (+190)
Romania 291 (+21) 5990 (+523) 758 (+29) 4941 (+473)
Indonesia 327 (+21) 3842 (+330) 286 (+4) 3229 (+305)
Pakistan 86 (+20) 5011 (+316) 762 (+35) 4163 (+261)
Colombia 100 (+20) 2709 (+236) 214 (+17) 2395 (+199)
Algeria 275 (+19) 1825 (+64) 460 (+55) 1090 (-10)
Austria 337 (+18) 13806 (+251) 6604 (+540) 6865 (-307)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 105403 (+6080) 1695251 (+79904) 324491 (+25840)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 110171 ( +5691) 1732640 ( +64122) 344665 ( +22529)
Mon 13 April 2020 115533 ( +5362) 1791619 ( +58979) 366399 ( +21733)
Tue 14 April 2020 120532 ( +4998) 1845429 ( +53810) 387102 ( +20703)
Wed 15 April 2020 125145 ( +4613) 1894160 ( +48732) 406587 ( +19485)
Thu 16 April 2020 129364 ( +4219) 1937998 ( +43837) 424719 ( +18132)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 3339 (+3) 81953 (+46) 77525 (+70)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 3275 ( +0) 81139 ( +0) 76341 ( +29)
Mon 13 April 2020 3275 ( +0) 81139 ( +0) 76367 ( +26)
Tue 14 April 2020 3275 ( +0) 81139 ( +0) 76389 ( +22)
Wed 15 April 2020 3275 ( +0) 81139 ( +0) 76408 ( +19)
Thu 16 April 2020 3275 ( +0) 81139 ( +0) 76425 ( +17)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 16606 (+525) 163027 (+4754) 59109 (+3441)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 16447 ( +293) 161342 ( +2411) 59981 ( +2252)
Mon 13 April 2020 16690 ( +244) 163376 ( +2034) 61911 ( +1930)
Tue 14 April 2020 16891 ( +201) 165084 ( +1708) 63545 ( +1634)
Wed 15 April 2020 17056 ( +165) 166512 ( +1429) 64914 ( +1369)
Thu 16 April 2020 17191 ( +135) 167704 ( +1191) 66051 ( +1137)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 19468 (+619) 152271 (+4694) 32534 (+2079)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 19176 ( +284) 147623 ( +1618) 32298 ( +1225)
Mon 13 April 2020 19423 ( +247) 149037 ( +1414) 33453 ( +1155)
Tue 14 April 2020 19637 ( +214) 150269 ( +1232) 34535 ( +1082)
Wed 15 April 2020 19821 ( +184) 151340 ( +1071) 35543 ( +1008)
Thu 16 April 2020 19979 ( +158) 152269 ( +929) 36476 ( +933)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 9875 (+917) 78991 (+5233) 344 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 10497 ( +758) 81676 ( +4510) 272 ( +17)
Mon 13 April 2020 11188 ( +691) 85875 ( +4199) 291 ( +18)
Tue 14 April 2020 11805 ( +617) 89735 ( +3860) 310 ( +20)
Wed 15 April 2020 12345 ( +540) 93242 ( +3507) 331 ( +21)
Thu 16 April 2020 12811 ( +466) 96394 ( +3152) 353 ( +22)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 20555 (+1860) 531257 (+29436) 29818 (+2579)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 22173 ( +1752) 542420 ( +22251) 29879 ( +1146)
Mon 13 April 2020 23806 ( +1633) 562075 ( +19656) 30806 ( +926)
Tue 14 April 2020 25294 ( +1489) 579235 ( +17160) 31543 ( +737)
Wed 15 April 2020 26625 ( +1331) 594061 ( +14827) 32122 ( +579)
Thu 16 April 2020 27793 ( +1169) 606758 ( +12697) 32573 ( +451)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 13832 (+635) 129654 (+4785) 26391 (+1459)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 14657 ( +759) 138673 ( +6177) 32589 ( +3466)
Mon 13 April 2020 15331 ( +674) 144384 ( +5711) 36466 ( +3878)
Tue 14 April 2020 15920 ( +589) 149612 ( +5228) 40806 ( +4339)
Wed 15 April 2020 16427 ( +508) 154355 ( +4742) 45662 ( +4856)
Thu 16 April 2020 16860 ( +433) 158621 ( +4266) 51095 ( +5434)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 2871 (+104) 125452 (+3281) 57400 (+3487)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 3084 ( +168) 124616 ( +2126) 62561 ( +4368)
Mon 13 April 2020 3233 ( +149) 126440 ( +1824) 66639 ( +4078)
Tue 14 April 2020 3363 ( +130) 127996 ( +1557) 70379 ( +3740)
Wed 15 April 2020 3475 ( +112) 129319 ( +1323) 73753 ( +3375)
Thu 16 April 2020 3571 ( +95) 130439 ( +1120) 76754 ( +3000)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 2643 (+132) 24413 (+1316) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 2683 ( +86) 23903 ( +594) 250 ( +0)
Mon 13 April 2020 2756 ( +74) 24428 ( +525) 250 ( +0)
Tue 14 April 2020 2819 ( +62) 24890 ( +462) 250 ( +0)
Wed 15 April 2020 2871 ( +52) 25293 ( +404) 250 ( +0)
Thu 16 April 2020 2915 ( +44) 25644 ( +351) 250 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 3346 (+327) 28018 (+1351) 5986 (+418)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 3670 ( +359) 27995 ( +837) 6103 ( +271)
Mon 13 April 2020 4030 ( +359) 28731 ( +736) 6339 ( +236)
Tue 14 April 2020 4382 ( +353) 29372 ( +641) 6542 ( +203)
Wed 15 April 2020 4722 ( +339) 29927 ( +555) 6715 ( +173)
Thu 16 April 2020 5043 ( +321) 30404 ( +477) 6861 ( +146)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 887 (+17) 10151 (+466) 381 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 999 ( +77) 10664 ( +541) 379 ( +27)
Mon 13 April 2020 1071 ( +72) 11195 ( +530) 403 ( +24)
Tue 14 April 2020 1137 ( +66) 11712 ( +517) 425 ( +22)
Wed 15 April 2020 1197 ( +59) 12212 ( +500) 444 ( +19)
Thu 16 April 2020 1249 ( +53) 12693 ( +481) 460 ( +16)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 208 (+27) 6356 (+401) 375 (+57)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 226 ( +18) 6609 ( +315) 403 ( +37)
Mon 13 April 2020 243 ( +17) 6899 ( +291) 435 ( +32)
Tue 14 April 2020 259 ( +16) 7165 ( +265) 461 ( +26)
Wed 15 April 2020 273 ( +14) 7405 ( +240) 482 ( +21)
Thu 16 April 2020 285 ( +12) 7619 ( +215) 499 ( +16)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 1036 (+34) 25107 (+556) 12100 (+1000)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 1063 ( +34) 24404 ( +239) 12313 ( +451)
Mon 13 April 2020 1093 ( +30) 24605 ( +201) 12667 ( +355)
Tue 14 April 2020 1118 ( +26) 24774 ( +169) 12942 ( +274)
Wed 15 April 2020 1140 ( +22) 24916 ( +142) 13151 ( +210)
Thu 16 April 2020 1158 ( +18) 25034 ( +118) 13310 ( +159)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 11 April 2020 4357 (+125) 70029 (+1837) 41947 (+6482)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 4246 ( +60) 72882 ( +1923) 42402 ( +3562)
Mon 13 April 2020 4300 ( +53) 74690 ( +1808) 46290 ( +3888)
Tue 14 April 2020 4347 ( +47) 76383 ( +1692) 50535 ( +4245)
Wed 15 April 2020 4389 ( +42) 77961 ( +1578) 55170 ( +4634)
Thu 16 April 2020 4426 ( +37) 79426 ( +1466) 60229 ( +5059)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.